IowaSenateIowaSen.

Toss-up

Open seat: was Ernst (R)

Hinson leads · R +0.8

Chance of winning

Josh Turek, DemocraticAshley Hinson, Republican

43%57%

Polls close · in 0 min

9 p.m. ET Tue, Nov 3

when every poll in Iowa closes

ForecastR +0.8 Polls 36D +0.7 Results9 p.m. ET

Loading the forecast’s history and its working…

Likely range

Margin points

Forecast

D +5.6R +7.2

8.0% of modeled margins fall between R +0.3 and R +1.3.

Betting market

For comparison

The betting market's price against the forecast's chance, for each side
Turek (D)		Hinson (R)
53¢	Kalshi	49¢
43%	Forecast	57%

They back different sides: the forecast gives Hinson 57%, and traders price Turek at 53¢ to Hinson's 49¢.Kalshi

Ballots cast so far

464,008 ballots

38% of the 2022 vote

2022 total 1.23M

By party registration

Democratic: 46%
Neither party: 20%
Republican: 34%

How these voters registered, not how they voted.

By mail: 149,325
In person: 314,683

Source:University of Florida Election Lab (opens in a new tab) from Iowa’s election office, updated Nov 2

Forecast before the vote · win chance and margin Hinson 57%, R +0.8

Betting market

For comparison

The betting market's price against the forecast's chance, for each side
Turek (D)		Hinson (R)
53¢	Kalshi	49¢
43%	Forecast	57%

They back different sides: the forecast gives Hinson 57%, and traders price Turek at 53¢ to Hinson's 49¢.Kalshi

Make your pick

IowaSenateIowaSen.

Toss-up

Open seat: was Ernst (R)

Hinson leads · R +0.8

Chance of winning

Josh Turek, DemocraticAshley Hinson, Republican

43%57%

Polls close · in 0 min

9 p.m. ET Tue, Nov 3

when every poll in Iowa closes

ForecastR +0.8 Polls 36D +0.7 Results9 p.m. ET

Loading the forecast’s history and its working…

Likely range

Margin points

Forecast

D +5.6R +7.2

8.0% of modeled margins fall between R +0.3 and R +1.3.

Betting market

For comparison

The betting market's price against the forecast's chance, for each side
Turek (D)		Hinson (R)
53¢	Kalshi	49¢
43%	Forecast	57%

They back different sides: the forecast gives Hinson 57%, and traders price Turek at 53¢ to Hinson's 49¢.Kalshi

Ballots cast so far

464,008 ballots

38% of the 2022 vote

2022 total 1.23M

By party registration

Democratic: 46%
Neither party: 20%
Republican: 34%

How these voters registered, not how they voted.

By mail: 149,325
In person: 314,683

Source:University of Florida Election Lab (opens in a new tab) from Iowa’s election office, updated Nov 2

Forecast before the vote · win chance and margin Hinson 57%, R +0.8

Betting market

For comparison

The betting market's price against the forecast's chance, for each side
Turek (D)		Hinson (R)
53¢	Kalshi	49¢
43%	Forecast	57%

They back different sides: the forecast gives Hinson 57%, and traders price Turek at 53¢ to Hinson's 49¢.Kalshi

Make your pick

IowaSenateIowaSen.

Toss-up

Open seat: was Ernst (R)

Hinson leads · R +0.8

Chance of winning

Josh Turek, DemocraticAshley Hinson, Republican

43%57%

Polls close · in 0 min

9 p.m. ET Tue, Nov 3

when every poll in Iowa closes

ForecastR +0.8 Polls 36D +0.7 Results9 p.m. ET

Loading the forecast’s history and its working…

Likely range

Margin points

Forecast

D +5.6R +7.2

8.0% of modeled margins fall between R +0.3 and R +1.3.

Betting market

For comparison

The betting market's price against the forecast's chance, for each side
Turek (D)		Hinson (R)
53¢	Kalshi	49¢
43%	Forecast	57%

They back different sides: the forecast gives Hinson 57%, and traders price Turek at 53¢ to Hinson's 49¢.Kalshi

Ballots cast so far

464,008 ballots

38% of the 2022 vote

2022 total 1.23M

By party registration

Democratic: 46%
Neither party: 20%
Republican: 34%

How these voters registered, not how they voted.

By mail: 149,325
In person: 314,683

Source:University of Florida Election Lab (opens in a new tab) from Iowa’s election office, updated Nov 2

Forecast before the vote · win chance and margin Hinson 57%, R +0.8

Betting market

For comparison

The betting market's price against the forecast's chance, for each side
Turek (D)		Hinson (R)
53¢	Kalshi	49¢
43%	Forecast	57%

They back different sides: the forecast gives Hinson 57%, and traders price Turek at 53¢ to Hinson's 49¢.Kalshi