VermontGovernorVermontGov.

Lean R

Incumbent: Phil Scott (R)

Scott leads · R +4.5

Chance of winning

Amanda Janoo, DemocraticPhil Scott, Republican

22%78%

Polls closed 7 p.m. ET · not called yet

Checking results

ForecastR +4.5 Polls 6D +1.0 Results—

Likely range

D +3.0 to R +12.0

The distribution is unavailable.

What it adds up to

Without pollsR +13.8

PollsR +0.8weighted, corrected

ForecastR +4.5

The Polls tab’s D +1.0 is the same weighted average of the polls as released. Here it is corrected for how far governor polls have missed on average since 2002.

How it adds up

How the forecast adds up, step by step
Without polls
State leanvoted D +32.8 for president in 2024, against R +1.7 across the 50 states; governor races follow about a third of it	D +12.6
This year's national moodD +9.6 nationally; governor races have followed about four-fifths of it, from a more Republican starting point	3.8 toward D
Last governor raceR +51.6 last time; about an eighth of it carries over	6.7 toward R
Incumbent runningan average governor gets 11.5; Phil Scott’s own record puts the edge above that	23.5 toward R
Without polls	R +13.8
Polls
6 polls, weightednewer polls count more, sponsored ones less; a pollster’s many polls count as one	D +1.0
Governor polls’ recordon average since 2002, they underrated Republicans	1.9 toward R
Polls, weighted and corrected	R +0.8
Forecast72% the polls, 28% the estimate without them	R +4.5

Betting market

For comparison

The betting market's price against the forecast's chance, for each side
Janoo (D)		Scott (R)
33¢	Kalshi	68¢
22%	Forecast	78%

Traders are 10 points less sure of Scott than the forecast: 68¢ against 78%.Kalshi

Est. Vote %: —
Cast before Election Day: 150,202University of Florida Election Lab (opens in a new tab), updated Nov 2

Forecast before the vote · win chance and margin Scott 78%, R +4.5

Betting market

For comparison

The betting market's price against the forecast's chance, for each side
Janoo (D)		Scott (R)
33¢	Kalshi	68¢
22%	Forecast	78%

Traders are 10 points less sure of Scott than the forecast: 68¢ against 78%.Kalshi

Make your pick

VermontGovernorVermontGov.

Lean R

Incumbent: Phil Scott (R)

Scott leads · R +4.5

Chance of winning

Amanda Janoo, DemocraticPhil Scott, Republican

22%78%

Polls closed 7 p.m. ET · not called yet

Checking results

ForecastR +4.5 Polls 6D +1.0 Results—

Likely range

D +3.0 to R +12.0

The distribution is unavailable.

What it adds up to

Without pollsR +13.8

PollsR +0.8weighted, corrected

ForecastR +4.5

The Polls tab’s D +1.0 is the same weighted average of the polls as released. Here it is corrected for how far governor polls have missed on average since 2002.

How it adds up

How the forecast adds up, step by step
Without polls
State leanvoted D +32.8 for president in 2024, against R +1.7 across the 50 states; governor races follow about a third of it	D +12.6
This year's national moodD +9.6 nationally; governor races have followed about four-fifths of it, from a more Republican starting point	3.8 toward D
Last governor raceR +51.6 last time; about an eighth of it carries over	6.7 toward R
Incumbent runningan average governor gets 11.5; Phil Scott’s own record puts the edge above that	23.5 toward R
Without polls	R +13.8
Polls
6 polls, weightednewer polls count more, sponsored ones less; a pollster’s many polls count as one	D +1.0
Governor polls’ recordon average since 2002, they underrated Republicans	1.9 toward R
Polls, weighted and corrected	R +0.8
Forecast72% the polls, 28% the estimate without them	R +4.5

Betting market

For comparison

The betting market's price against the forecast's chance, for each side
Janoo (D)		Scott (R)
33¢	Kalshi	68¢
22%	Forecast	78%

Traders are 10 points less sure of Scott than the forecast: 68¢ against 78%.Kalshi

Est. Vote %: —
Cast before Election Day: 150,202University of Florida Election Lab (opens in a new tab), updated Nov 2

Forecast before the vote · win chance and margin Scott 78%, R +4.5

Betting market

For comparison

The betting market's price against the forecast's chance, for each side
Janoo (D)		Scott (R)
33¢	Kalshi	68¢
22%	Forecast	78%

Traders are 10 points less sure of Scott than the forecast: 68¢ against 78%.Kalshi