AK-ALHouse

Likely R

Incumbent: Nick Begich (R)

Begich leads · R +6.5

Chance of winning

Bill Hill, IndependentNick Begich, Republican

16%82%

Eric Hafner (D) 2%

Likely range

Margin points

Forecast

I +2.1R +15.1

8.0% of modeled margins fall between R +5.8 and R +7.2.

For comparison

Traders and the forecast agree on Begich: 81¢ and 82%.Kalshi

9 polls in the forecast · their lead R +6.4 Poll results: Adjusted

8 with no party sponsor · 1 party-sponsored (1 I)

For comparison

Traders and the forecast agree on Begich: 81¢ and 82%.Kalshi