FL-04House

Forecast: Lean R

Incumbent: Aaron Bean (R)

Final forecast

L.J. Holloway, DemocraticAaron Bean, Republican

24%76%

projected winnerNov 3, 10:00 PM ET

Bean won R +2.1

Won by 6,314 votes · checked 31 min ago

Likely range

Margin points

Forecast

D +4.0R +13.5

8.0% of modeled margins fall between R +4.0 and R +5.4.

For comparison

Traders and the forecast agree on Bean: 79¢ and 76%.Kalshi

Est. vote in: ~95%301,128 votes
Checked: 31 min agocivicAPI (opens in a new tab), unofficial
Cast before Election Day: 164,940University of Florida Election Lab (opens in a new tab), updated Oct 31

Forecast before the vote · win chance and margin Bean 76%, R +4.7Result Bean won by 2.1