FL-05House

Forecast: Solid R

Incumbent: John Rutherford (R)

Final forecast

Rachel Grage, DemocraticJohn Rutherford, Republican

1%99%

projected winnerNov 3, 10:00 PM ET

Rutherford won R +12.8

Won by 42,760 votes · checked 31 min ago

Likely range

Margin points

Forecast

R +6.1R +23.7

8.0% of modeled margins fall between R +14.2 and R +15.6.

For comparison

Traders and the forecast agree on Rutherford: 95¢ and 99%.Kalshi

Est. vote in: ~95%334,061 votes
Checked: 31 min agocivicAPI (opens in a new tab), unofficial
Cast before Election Day: 182,083University of Florida Election Lab (opens in a new tab), updated Oct 31

Forecast before the vote · win chance and margin Rutherford 99%, R +14.9Result Rutherford won by 12.8