Skip to content
CloseCall
    • Senate
    • House
    • Governors
    • Senate
    • House
    • Governors
    • Forecast guide
    • My picks
    • My leagues
    • Leaderboard
    • Picks guide
    • Senate
    • House
    • Governors

Results

  • Senate
  • House
  • Governors

Forecast

  • Senate
  • House
  • Governors
  • Forecast guide

Picks

  • My picks
  • My leagues
  • Leaderboard
  • Picks guide

Polls

  • Senate
  • House
  • Governors

The site

  • About
  • Contact
  • Privacy
  • Terms
Theme
Forecast

FL-08House

Solid R

Incumbent: Mike Haridopolos (R)

Haridopolos leads · R +9.9

Chance of winning

Jennifer Jenkins, DemocraticJennifer Jenkins (D)Mike Haridopolos, RepublicanMike Haridopolos (R)

4%96%

ForecastR +9.9Polls 2R +9.9ResultsProjected: R +6.3

Likely range

Margin points
Forecast
R +2.8R +17.1
D +9.7EvenR +29.6

8.0% of modeled margins fall between R +9.4 and R +10.5.

Betting market

For comparison

The betting market's price against the forecast's chance, for each side
Jenkins (D)Haridopolos (R)
7¢Kalshi93¢
4%Forecast96%

They agreeTraders and the forecast agree on Haridopolos: 93¢ and 96%.Kalshi

2 polls

2 polls in the forecast · their lead R +9.9 Poll results: Adjusted · Raw results R +10.5

2 with no party sponsor

  1. Jennifer Jenkins (D)149,667 votes46.8%
  2. Mike Haridopolos (R)projected winnerProjected169,928 votes53.2%
Est. vote in
~95%319,595 votes
Checked
39 min agocivicAPI (opens in a new tab), unofficial
Cast before Election Day
187,569University of Florida Election Lab (opens in a new tab), updated Oct 31

Forecast before the vote · win chance and margin Haridopolos 96%, R +9.9Result Haridopolos won by 6.3

Betting market

For comparison

The betting market's price against the forecast's chance, for each side
Jenkins (D)Haridopolos (R)
7¢Kalshi93¢
4%Forecast96%

They agreeTraders and the forecast agree on Haridopolos: 93¢ and 96%.Kalshi

Key races

Forecast margin

The closest house calls

Results

  • Senate
  • House
  • Governors

Forecast

  • Senate
  • House
  • Governors
  • Forecast guide

Picks

  • My picks
  • My leagues
  • Leaderboard
  • Picks guide

Polls

  • Senate
  • House
  • Governors
CloseCallAboutContactPrivacyTermsXBluesky© 2026 CloseCall