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Theme
Forecast

FL-11House

Lean R

Open seat: was Webster (R)

Strada leads · R +4.6

Chance of winning

James Pericola, DemocraticJames Pericola (D)Joe Strada, RepublicanJoe Strada (R)

21%79%

ForecastR +4.6Polls 1R +2.0ResultsProjected: R +6.9

Likely range

Margin points
Forecast
D +2.8R +12.1
D +15.7EvenR +24.9

8.0% of modeled margins fall between R +4.1 and R +5.2.

Betting market

For comparison

The betting market's price against the forecast's chance, for each side
Pericola (D)Strada (R)
18¢Kalshi83¢
21%Forecast79%

They agreeTraders and the forecast agree on Strada: 83¢ and 79%.Kalshi

1 poll

1 poll in the forecast · their lead R +2.0 Poll results: Adjusted · Raw results R +0.4

1 with no party sponsor

  1. James Pericola (D)168,207 votes46.0%
  2. Joe Strada (R)projected winnerProjected193,588 votes52.9%
  3. Ralph Groves (O)3,960 votes1.1%
Est. vote in
~95%365,755 votes
Checked
39 min agocivicAPI (opens in a new tab), unofficial
Cast before Election Day
220,465University of Florida Election Lab (opens in a new tab), updated Oct 31

Forecast before the vote · win chance and margin Strada 79%, R +4.6Result Strada won by 6.9

Betting market

For comparison

The betting market's price against the forecast's chance, for each side
Pericola (D)Strada (R)
18¢Kalshi83¢
21%Forecast79%

They agreeTraders and the forecast agree on Strada: 83¢ and 79%.Kalshi

Key races

Forecast margin

The closest house calls

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