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LA-03House

Solid R

Incumbent: Clay Higgins (R)

Higgins leads · R +29.5

Chance of winning

3 Democrats, Democratic3 DemocratsClay Higgins, RepublicanClay Higgins (R)

0.2%99.8%

ForecastR +29.5PollsNone yetResultsProjected: R

Likely range

Margin points
Forecast
R +16.4R +42.6
D +6.4EvenR +65.4

8.0% of modeled margins fall between R +28.5 and R +30.5.

Betting market

For comparison

The betting market's price against the forecast's chance, for each side
Democrats ()Higgins (R)
2¢Kalshi98¢
<1%Forecast>99%

They agreeTraders and the forecast agree on Higgins: 98¢ and >99%.Kalshi

Polls

No polls of this race yet.

  1. John Day (D)49,163 votes20.9%
  2. With a C Walker (D)19,932 votes8.5%
  3. Priscilla Gonzalez (D)16,828 votes7.2%
  4. Clay Higgins (R)129,203 votes55.0%
  5. Kate Cotten (R)15,661 votes6.7%
  6. Tia LeBrun (I)4,208 votes1.8%
Est. vote in
~95%234,995 votes
Checked
39 min agocivicAPI (opens in a new tab), unofficial

Forecast before the vote · win chance and margin Higgins 99.8%, R +29.5Result Republican candidate won

Betting market

For comparison

The betting market's price against the forecast's chance, for each side
Democrats ()Higgins (R)
2¢Kalshi98¢
<1%Forecast>99%

They agreeTraders and the forecast agree on Higgins: 98¢ and >99%.Kalshi

Key races

Forecast margin

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