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LA-05House

Solid R

Open seat: was Letlow (R)

Republicans lead · R +24.0

Chance of winning

3 Democrats, Democratic3 Democrats6 Republicans, Republican6 Republicans

1.0%99.0%

ForecastR +24.0PollsNone yetResultsR +26.2

Likely range

Margin points
Forecast
R +10.8R +37.1
D +11.9EvenR +59.9

8.0% of modeled margins fall between R +23.0 and R +25.0.

Betting market

For comparison

The betting market's price against the forecast's chance, for each side
Democrats ()Republicans ()
2¢Kalshi98¢
<1%Forecast>99%

They agreeTraders and the forecast agree on Republicans: 98¢ and >99%.Kalshi

Polls

No polls of this race yet.

  1. Pat Moore (D)40,786 votes17.9%
  2. Gabe Firment (R)39,126 votes17.2%
  3. Misti Cordell (R)33,371 votes14.6%
  4. Michael Echols (R)32,905 votes14.4%
  5. Stewart Cathey Jr. (R)28,168 votes12.4%
  6. Antonio Wilson (D)27,373 votes12.0%
  7. Dan McKay (D)16,051 votes7.0%
  8. Austin Magee (R)7,910 votes3.5%
  9. Omar Dantzler (R)2,233 votes1.0%
Est. vote in
~95%227,923 votes
Checked
21 min agocivicAPI (opens in a new tab), unofficial

Forecast before the vote R +24.0

Betting market

For comparison

The betting market's price against the forecast's chance, for each side
Democrats ()Republicans ()
2¢Kalshi98¢
<1%Forecast>99%

They agreeTraders and the forecast agree on Republicans: 98¢ and >99%.Kalshi

Key races

Forecast margin

The closest house calls

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