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Theme
Forecast

MN-02House

Solid D

Open seat: was Craig (D)

Little leads · D +13.0

Chance of winning

Matt Little, DemocraticMatt Little (D)Eric Pratt, RepublicanEric Pratt (R)

99%1%

ForecastD +13.0Polls 1D +8.7ResultsProjected: D +14.3

Likely range

Margin points
Forecast
D +20.3D +5.8
D +32.9EvenR +6.8

8.0% of modeled margins fall between D +13.6 and D +12.5.

Betting market

For comparison

The betting market's price against the forecast's chance, for each side
Little (D)Pratt (R)
96¢Kalshi5¢
99%Forecast1%

They agreeTraders and the forecast agree on Little: 96¢ and 99%.Kalshi

1 poll

1 poll in the forecast · their lead D +8.7 Poll results: Adjusted · Raw results D +13.0

1 party-sponsored (1 D)

  1. Matt Little (D)projected winnerProjected214,282 votes57.1%
  2. Eric Pratt (R)160,645 votes42.8%
  3. Write-in314 votes0.1%
Est. vote in
~95%375,241 votes
Checked
39 min agocivicAPI (opens in a new tab), unofficial

Forecast before the vote · win chance and margin Little 99%, D +13.0Result Little won

Betting market

For comparison

The betting market's price against the forecast's chance, for each side
Little (D)Pratt (R)
96¢Kalshi5¢
99%Forecast1%

They agreeTraders and the forecast agree on Little: 96¢ and 99%.Kalshi

Key races

Forecast margin

The closest house calls

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