MN-05House

Forecast: Solid D

Incumbent: Ilhan Omar (D)

Final forecast

Ilhan Omar, DemocraticJohn Nagel, Republican

>99.9%<0.1%

projected winnerNov 4, 12:42 AM ET

Omar won

Won by 206,938 votes · checked 31 min ago

Likely range

Margin points

Forecast

D +76.0D +58.5

8.0% of modeled margins fall between D +67.9 and D +66.5.

For comparison

Traders and the forecast agree on Omar: 98¢ and 100%.Kalshi

Forecast before the vote · win chance and margin Omar >99.9%, D +67.2Result Omar won