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NC-05House

Likely R

Incumbent: Virginia Foxx (R)

Foxx leads · R +10.1

Chance of winning

Chuck Hubbard, DemocraticChuck Hubbard (D)Virginia Foxx, RepublicanVirginia Foxx (R)

7%93%

ForecastR +10.1PollsNone yetResultsD +0.1

Likely range

Margin points
Forecast
R +1.3R +18.8
D +13.9EvenR +34.0

8.0% of modeled margins fall between R +9.4 and R +10.7.

Betting market

For comparison

The betting market's price against the forecast's chance, for each side
Hubbard (D)Foxx (R)
15¢Kalshi84¢
7%Forecast93%

Traders less sure of Foxx by 9 pointsTraders are 9 points less sure of Foxx than the forecast: 84¢ against 93%.Kalshi

Polls

No polls of this race yet.

  1. Chuck Hubbard (D)Leads139,788 votes48.7%
  2. Virginia Foxx (R)139,453 votes48.6%
  3. Robert B. Luffman7,579 votes2.6%
Est. vote in
~90%100% of election-day precincts reporting · 286,820 votes
Checked
22 min agoNorth Carolina State Board of Elections · Report Nov 12, 6:33 PM ET
Cast before Election Day
187,153University of Florida Election Lab (opens in a new tab), updated Nov 3

Forecast before the vote · win chance and margin Foxx 93%, R +10.1

Betting market

For comparison

The betting market's price against the forecast's chance, for each side
Hubbard (D)Foxx (R)
15¢Kalshi84¢
7%Forecast93%

Traders less sure of Foxx by 9 pointsTraders are 9 points less sure of Foxx than the forecast: 84¢ against 93%.Kalshi

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