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TN-01House

Solid R

Incumbent: Diana Harshbarger (R)

Harshbarger leads · R +50.2

Chance of winning

Kristi Burke, DemocraticKristi Burke (D)Diana Harshbarger, RepublicanDiana Harshbarger (R)

<0.1%>99.9%

ForecastR +50.2PollsNone yetResultsProjected: R +30.8

Likely range

Margin points
Forecast
R +41.4R +59.0
R +26.3R +74.1

8.0% of modeled margins fall between R +49.5 and R +50.9.

Betting market

For comparison

The betting market's price against the forecast's chance, for each side
Burke (D)Harshbarger (R)
2¢Kalshi99¢
0%Forecast100%

They agreeTraders and the forecast agree on Harshbarger: 99¢ and 100%.Kalshi

Polls

No polls of this race yet.

  1. Kristi Burke (D)69,207 votes33.1%
  2. Diana Harshbarger (R)projected winnerProjected133,592 votes63.8%
  3. Joshua Ray Ashburn2,102 votes1.0%
  4. Billy Cody1,398 votes0.7%
  5. Chris Campbell1,296 votes0.6%
  6. Richard G. Baker1,219 votes0.6%
  7. Tyler Brice Mitchell McClain541 votes0.3%
Est. vote in
~85%209,355 votes
Checked
21 min agocivicAPI (opens in a new tab), unofficial

Forecast before the vote · win chance and margin Harshbarger >99.9%, R +50.2Result Harshbarger won

Betting market

For comparison

The betting market's price against the forecast's chance, for each side
Burke (D)Harshbarger (R)
2¢Kalshi99¢
0%Forecast100%

They agreeTraders and the forecast agree on Harshbarger: 99¢ and 100%.Kalshi

Key races

Forecast margin

The closest house calls

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