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Results

TN-02House

Solid R

Incumbent: Tim Burchett (R)

Burchett leads · R +27.2

Chance of winning

Michaela Barnett, DemocraticMichaela Barnett (D)Tim Burchett, RepublicanTim Burchett (R)

<0.1%>99.9%

ForecastR +27.2PollsNone yetResultsProjected: R +16.6

Likely range

Margin points
Forecast
R +18.4R +36.0
R +3.3R +51.1

8.0% of modeled margins fall between R +26.5 and R +27.9.

Betting market

For comparison

The betting market's price against the forecast's chance, for each side
Barnett (D)Burchett (R)
2¢Kalshi98¢
<1%Forecast>99%

They agreeTraders and the forecast agree on Burchett: 98¢ and >99%.Kalshi

Polls

No polls of this race yet.

  1. Michaela Barnett (D)103,311 votes41.2%
  2. Tim Burchett (R)projected winnerProjected144,892 votes57.7%
  3. Bruce Fine1,827 votes0.7%
  4. Adam Heimerman950 votes0.4%
Est. vote in
~95%250,980 votes
Checked
21 min agocivicAPI (opens in a new tab), unofficial

Forecast before the vote · win chance and margin Burchett >99.9%, R +27.2Result Burchett won

Betting market

For comparison

The betting market's price against the forecast's chance, for each side
Barnett (D)Burchett (R)
2¢Kalshi98¢
<1%Forecast>99%

They agreeTraders and the forecast agree on Burchett: 98¢ and >99%.Kalshi

Key races

Forecast margin

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