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Results

TN-03House

Solid R

Incumbent: Chuck Fleischmann (R)

Fleischmann leads · R +28.8

Chance of winning

Anna Golladay, DemocraticAnna Golladay (D)Chuck Fleischmann, RepublicanChuck Fleischmann (R)

<0.1%>99.9%

ForecastR +28.8PollsNone yetResultsProjected: R +17.4

Likely range

Margin points
Forecast
R +20.0R +37.5
R +4.8R +52.7

8.0% of modeled margins fall between R +28.1 and R +29.4.

Betting market

For comparison

The betting market's price against the forecast's chance, for each side
Golladay (D)Fleischmann (R)
2¢Kalshi97¢
<1%Forecast>99%

They agreeTraders and the forecast agree on Fleischmann: 97¢ and >99%.Kalshi

Polls

No polls of this race yet.

  1. Anna Golladay (D)95,051 votes40.2%
  2. Chuck Fleischmann (R)projected winnerProjected136,110 votes57.6%
  3. Dean Arnold2,136 votes0.9%
  4. Rodney Joe King1,207 votes0.5%
  5. Jean Howard-Hill923 votes0.4%
  6. Donnie Lynn Ownby527 votes0.2%
  7. Edward John Roland404 votes0.2%
Est. vote in
~90%236,358 votes
Checked
21 min agocivicAPI (opens in a new tab), unofficial

Forecast before the vote · win chance and margin Fleischmann >99.9%, R +28.8Result Fleischmann won

Betting market

For comparison

The betting market's price against the forecast's chance, for each side
Golladay (D)Fleischmann (R)
2¢Kalshi97¢
<1%Forecast>99%

They agreeTraders and the forecast agree on Fleischmann: 97¢ and >99%.Kalshi

Key races

Forecast margin

The closest house calls

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