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Theme
Forecast

TN-08House

Solid R

Incumbent: David Kustoff (R)

Kustoff leads · R +15.9

Chance of winning

Heidi Kuhn, DemocraticHeidi Kuhn (D)David Kustoff, RepublicanDavid Kustoff (R)

1%99%

ForecastR +15.9PollsNone yetResultsProjected: R +5.3

Likely range

Margin points
Forecast
R +7.1R +24.6
D +8.1EvenR +39.8

8.0% of modeled margins fall between R +15.2 and R +16.5.

Betting market

For comparison

The betting market's price against the forecast's chance, for each side
Kuhn (D)Kustoff (R)
3¢Kalshi96¢
1%Forecast99%

They agreeTraders and the forecast agree on Kustoff: 96¢ and 99%.Kalshi

Polls

No polls of this race yet.

  1. Heidi Kuhn (D)102,406 votes46.4%
  2. David Kustoff (R)projected winnerProjected114,045 votes51.6%
  3. Pamela Jeanine "P." Moses1,035 votes0.5%
  4. Horace Taylor861 votes0.4%
  5. Adam D. Austill854 votes0.4%
  6. Wendell "Wells" Blankenship714 votes0.3%
  7. Antonio Futch506 votes0.2%
  8. Henry J. Ward, III485 votes0.2%
Est. vote in
~95%220,906 votes
Checked
21 min agocivicAPI (opens in a new tab), unofficial

Forecast before the vote · win chance and margin Kustoff 99%, R +15.9Result Kustoff won

Betting market

For comparison

The betting market's price against the forecast's chance, for each side
Kuhn (D)Kustoff (R)
3¢Kalshi96¢
1%Forecast99%

They agreeTraders and the forecast agree on Kustoff: 96¢ and 99%.Kalshi

Key races

Forecast margin

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