TN-09House

Forecast: Solid R

Open seat: was Cohen (D)

Final forecast

Justin Pearson, DemocraticBrent Taylor, Republican

3%97%

projected winnerNov 4, 1:26 AM ET

Taylor won

Won by 2,539 votes · checked 15 min ago

Likely range

Margin points

Forecast

R +3.2R +17.9

8.0% of modeled margins fall between R +10.0 and R +11.1.

For comparison

Traders are 17 points less sure of Taylor than the forecast: 80¢ against 97%.Kalshi

Forecast before the vote · win chance and margin Taylor 97%, R +10.5Result Taylor won