TexasSenateTexasSen.

Toss-up

Open seat: was Cornyn (R)

Talarico leads · D +0.7

Chance of winning

James Talarico, DemocraticKen Paxton, Republican

56%44%

Polls close · in 2 min

9 p.m. ET Tue, Nov 3

when every poll in Texas closes

ForecastD +0.7 Polls 74D +2.9 Results9 p.m. ET

Loading the forecast’s history and its working…

Likely range

Margin points

Forecast

D +7.1R +5.7

8.0% of modeled margins fall between D +1.2 and D +0.2.

Betting market

For comparison

The betting market's price against the forecast's chance, for each side
Talarico (D)		Paxton (R)
74¢	Kalshi	28¢
56%	Forecast	44%

Traders are 18 points surer of Talarico than the forecast: 74¢ against 56%.Kalshi

Ballots cast so far

7,736,594 ballots

95% of the 2022 vote

2022 total 8.15M

By mail: 270,349
In person: 7,466,245

Source:University of Florida Election Lab (opens in a new tab) from Texas’s election office, updated Nov 2

Forecast before the vote · win chance and margin Talarico 56%, D +0.7

Betting market

For comparison

The betting market's price against the forecast's chance, for each side
Talarico (D)		Paxton (R)
74¢	Kalshi	28¢
56%	Forecast	44%

Traders are 18 points surer of Talarico than the forecast: 74¢ against 56%.Kalshi

Make your pick

TexasSenateTexasSen.

Toss-up

Open seat: was Cornyn (R)

Talarico leads · D +0.7

Chance of winning

James Talarico, DemocraticKen Paxton, Republican

56%44%

Polls close · in 2 min

9 p.m. ET Tue, Nov 3

when every poll in Texas closes

ForecastD +0.7 Polls 74D +2.9 Results9 p.m. ET

Loading the forecast’s history and its working…

Likely range

Margin points

Forecast

D +7.1R +5.7

8.0% of modeled margins fall between D +1.2 and D +0.2.

Betting market

For comparison

The betting market's price against the forecast's chance, for each side
Talarico (D)		Paxton (R)
74¢	Kalshi	28¢
56%	Forecast	44%

Traders are 18 points surer of Talarico than the forecast: 74¢ against 56%.Kalshi

Ballots cast so far

7,736,594 ballots

95% of the 2022 vote

2022 total 8.15M

By mail: 270,349
In person: 7,466,245

Source:University of Florida Election Lab (opens in a new tab) from Texas’s election office, updated Nov 2

Forecast before the vote · win chance and margin Talarico 56%, D +0.7

Betting market

For comparison

The betting market's price against the forecast's chance, for each side
Talarico (D)		Paxton (R)
74¢	Kalshi	28¢
56%	Forecast	44%

Traders are 18 points surer of Talarico than the forecast: 74¢ against 56%.Kalshi

Make your pick

TexasSenateTexasSen.

Toss-up

Open seat: was Cornyn (R)

Talarico leads · D +0.7

Chance of winning

James Talarico, DemocraticKen Paxton, Republican

56%44%

Polls close · in 2 min

9 p.m. ET Tue, Nov 3

when every poll in Texas closes

ForecastD +0.7 Polls 74D +2.9 Results9 p.m. ET

Loading the forecast’s history and its working…

Likely range

Margin points

Forecast

D +7.1R +5.7

8.0% of modeled margins fall between D +1.2 and D +0.2.

Betting market

For comparison

The betting market's price against the forecast's chance, for each side
Talarico (D)		Paxton (R)
74¢	Kalshi	28¢
56%	Forecast	44%

Traders are 18 points surer of Talarico than the forecast: 74¢ against 56%.Kalshi

Ballots cast so far

7,736,594 ballots

95% of the 2022 vote

2022 total 8.15M

By mail: 270,349
In person: 7,466,245

Source:University of Florida Election Lab (opens in a new tab) from Texas’s election office, updated Nov 2

Forecast before the vote · win chance and margin Talarico 56%, D +0.7

Betting market

For comparison

The betting market's price against the forecast's chance, for each side
Talarico (D)		Paxton (R)
74¢	Kalshi	28¢
56%	Forecast	44%

Traders are 18 points surer of Talarico than the forecast: 74¢ against 56%.Kalshi