Data & sources
Each kind of data has one authority. Anything else can help find a record, never overrule it.
| Data | Authority | The rule | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polls | Each pollster’s or sponsor’s own release | Found through poll listings, then checked against the release. A poll that names the wrong race or can’t be traced is set aside, not counted. | Senate and House forecasts; every poll page. Governor polls are shown, and feed the governor forecast. |
| Candidates and ballots | Each state’s election office | Filings with the FEC can name a candidate but never put one on a ballot. A field is “Projected” until the state certifies it. | Every race’s candidates |
| Who holds each seat | The U.S. House Clerk, the U.S. Senate, and each state’s governor’s office (reconciled with the National Governors Association) | Vacancies are counted as vacancies, never assigned. | Seat changes and open seats |
| Campaign filings | The Federal Election Commission (OpenFEC) | A filing is a filing: it does not make a candidate. | Candidate identity, Senate and House |
| Districts and maps | Each state’s current district plan; Census Bureau boundaries | A district is drawn only where its plan is settled. | The House map and grid |
| Past results | Certified state results | Matched to today’s districts only through a documented conversion. | The model’s history and each race’s 2024 vote |
| Betting markets | Kalshi’s official market data | A market that is closed, one-sided or not clearly this race is left out, never read as zero. | Shown beside the forecast for comparison; never an input |