FL-01House

Forecast: Solid R

Incumbent: Jimmy Patronis Jr. (R)

Final forecast

Gay Valimont, DemocraticJimmy Patronis Jr., Republican

<0.1%>99.9%

projected winnerNov 3, 10:00 PM ET

Patronis won R +26.9

Won by 78,215 votes · checked 31 min ago

Likely range

Margin points

Forecast

R +21.9R +39.5

8.0% of modeled margins fall between R +30.0 and R +31.4.

For comparison

Traders and the forecast agree on Patronis: 98¢ and >99%.Kalshi

Est. vote in: ~95%291,010 votes
Checked: 31 min agocivicAPI (opens in a new tab), unofficial
Cast before Election Day: 145,246University of Florida Election Lab (opens in a new tab), updated Oct 31

Forecast before the vote · win chance and margin Patronis >99.9%, R +30.7Result Patronis won by 26.9