FL-09House

Forecast: Lean R

Incumbent: Darren Soto (D)

Final forecast

Darren Soto, DemocraticDan Green, Republican

30%70%

Not called yet · 285,122 votes

Soto leads D +0.5

Leads by 1,506 votes · checked 15 min ago

Likely range

Margin points

Forecast

D +4.2R +9.9

8.0% of modeled margins fall between R +2.3 and R +3.4.

For comparison

Traders are 10 points less sure of Green than the forecast: 60¢ against 70%.Kalshi

Est. vote in: ~95%285,122 votes
Checked: 15 min agocivicAPI (opens in a new tab), unofficial
Cast before Election Day: 165,087University of Florida Election Lab (opens in a new tab), updated Oct 31

Forecast before the vote · win chance and margin Green 70%, R +2.8