LA-04House

Solid R

Incumbent: Mike Johnson (R)

Johnson leads · R +27.7

Chance of winning

2 Democrats, DemocraticMike Johnson, Republican

0.3%99.7%

Likely range

Margin points

Forecast

R +14.6R +40.8

8.0% of modeled margins fall between R +26.7 and R +28.7.

For comparison

Traders and the forecast agree on Johnson: 97¢ and >99%.Kalshi

For comparison

Traders and the forecast agree on Johnson: 97¢ and >99%.Kalshi