LA-04House

Forecast: Solid R

Incumbent: Mike Johnson (R)

Final forecast

2 Democrats, DemocraticMike Johnson, Republican

0.3%99.7%

projected winnerNov 4, 2:26 AM ET

Republican candidate wonJohnson has 58.5% of the count

230,359 votes · checked 31 min ago

Likely range

Margin points

Forecast

R +14.6R +40.8

8.0% of modeled margins fall between R +26.7 and R +28.7.

For comparison

Traders and the forecast agree on Johnson: 97¢ and >99%.Kalshi

Forecast before the vote · win chance and margin Johnson 99.7%, R +27.7Result Republican candidate won