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TN-04House

Solid R

Incumbent: Scott DesJarlais (R)

DesJarlais leads · R +16.4

Chance of winning

Victoria Broderick, DemocraticVictoria Broderick (D)Scott DesJarlais, RepublicanScott DesJarlais (R)

0.8%99.2%

ForecastR +16.4PollsNone yetResultsD +0.1

Likely range

Margin points
Forecast
R +7.7R +25.2
D +7.5EvenR +40.4

8.0% of modeled margins fall between R +15.8 and R +17.1.

Betting market

For comparison

The betting market's price against the forecast's chance, for each side
Broderick (D)DesJarlais (R)
2¢Kalshi98¢
<1%Forecast>99%

They agreeTraders and the forecast agree on DesJarlais: 98¢ and >99%.Kalshi

Polls

No polls of this race yet.

  1. Victoria Broderick (D)Leads95,585 votes48.9%
  2. Scott DesJarlais (R)95,305 votes48.7%
  3. Jacob Kristopher Anders2,833 votes1.4%
  4. Clay Faircloth1,853 votes0.9%
Est. vote in
~85%195,576 votes
Checked
7:01 PM ETcivicAPI (opens in a new tab), unofficial

Forecast before the vote · win chance and margin DesJarlais 99.2%, R +16.4

Betting market

For comparison

The betting market's price against the forecast's chance, for each side
Broderick (D)DesJarlais (R)
2¢Kalshi98¢
<1%Forecast>99%

They agreeTraders and the forecast agree on DesJarlais: 98¢ and >99%.Kalshi

Key races

Forecast margin

The closest house calls

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